بررسی اثر تجربی تورم بر جرایم در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

تلاش برای تدوین سیاست هایی جامع به منظور پیشبرد فرآیند توسعه اقتصادی ، اجتماعی ، سیاسی ، فرهنگی و... جامعه ایجاب می کند که آثار تورم به عنوان یکی از مهمترین مشکلات کشورهای در حال توسعه در تمامی ابعاد زندگی افراد از جمله مسائل اجتماعی همچون جرایم که سالانه هزینه های زیادی را متوجه افراد و جوامع می گرداند مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. بدین منظور پس از بیان مباحث نظری ، رابطه تورم با جرایم با استفاده از یک مدل داده های تلفیقی در سطوح مختلف زمانی (کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت) به صورت تجربی و در سطح استان، طی دوره91-1376بررسی می گردد و میزان اثرگذاری این متغیر بر انواع جرایم از جمله جرایم دارایی و جرایم خشن در کنار سایر متغیرهای مهم دیگر مشخص می شود.
نتایج مطالعه نشان می دهد که تورم همواره در بلندمدت و کوتاه مدت اثر معنادار و مثبتی بر انواع جرایم دارد و مقایسه کشش ها حاکی از آن است که اثر تورم بر جرایم حتی بیشتر از اثر بیکاری بر جرایم می باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Investigation of Emprical Effect of Inflation on Crime in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • hamid abrishami 1
  • Zakieh Rezaei 2
1 Profesor,Faculty of Economics , University of Tehran
2 Msc Student of Economics, University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Efforts to develop comprehensive policies to promote community economic, social, political, cultural and etc development ; need to examine the effects of inflation as one of the most important problems of developing countries in all aspects of life including social issues such as crime the annual fee noticed that a lot of people and communities be considered. Thus, after the theoretical expression, inflation swelling associated with the crime will be dealt with using a panel data model when the various levels (short and long term) of the experimental and at the provincial level will be dealt with over the years 1997-2012 and effectiveness of these variables on a variety of crimes including property crimes and violent crimes, along with other important variables.
The results show that inflation is always significant and positive in the long term and short-term effect on crime types and drawing comparisons suggest that the effect of inflation on crime is even more than the effect of unemployment on crime.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Inflation
  • crime
  • Crime economic
  • Robbery
  • Theft
  • Murder

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