سناریوهای تحلیلی ارتقای عملکرد بانکداری ایران با ترکیب قابلیت‌های ظرفیت جذب دانش و آینده‌نگاری شرکتی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره) قزوین (نویسنده مسئول)

2 دانشیار دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی‌ امام خمینی (ره) قزوین

3 دانشیار دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه بین‌المللی امام خمینی (ره) قزوین

چکیده

هدف این مقاله پاسخ به این سؤال است که آیا می‌توان با بهره‌گیری از ترکیب قابلیت‌های ظرفیت جذب دانش و آینده‌نگاری شرکتی، نوآوری، تصمیم‌گیری و عملکرد سازمانی نظام بانکی ایران را ارتقا داد؟ برای پاسخ به پرسش در این پژوهش ضمن مرور ظرفیت جذب دانش و آینده‌‌نگاری شرکتی، به بررسی مؤلفه‌‌ها و ابعاد آن پرداخته شده است. پژوهش ازلحاظ هدف کاربردی، از منظر روش آمیخته و از حیث زمانی مقطعی است. ابزار گردآوری داده‌‌ها روش‌‌های کتابخانه‌‌ای و دلفی فازی از خبرگان دانشگاهی و صنعت (15 خبره)، روش مدل‌سازی ساختاری تفسیری و نرم‌افزار میک‌مک و در بخش کمّی داده‌‌های تحقیق با استفاده از پرسشنامه و تحلیل‌های مالی در نظام بانکی ایران شامل بانک‌های تجاری دولتی، تخصصی دولتی، قرض‌الحسنه و غیردولتی و مشتمل بر 30 بانک جمع‌‌آوری و اعتبار مدل اندازه‌‌گیری با 93 نمونه و از طریق تحلیل‌‌های آماری توصیفی، استنباطی و مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری با استفاده از نرم‌افزار SmartPLS تأیید شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن است که می‌توان عملکرد را با ترکیب قابلیت‌های ظرفیت جذب دانش و آینده‌نگاری شرکتی ارتقا داد. در پایان نیز از ترکیب دو قابلیت، چهار سناریوی محتمل کعبه آمال، کانون آلام، نزول جلال و عروج بی‌بال، ترسیم و تحلیل شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analytic Scenarios for the Promotion of Iranian Banking Performance by Combining the Capabilities of Knowledge Absorptive Capacity and Corporate Foresight

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Joneidi Jaafari 1
  • Farhad Darvishi 2
  • Rohollah Bayat 3
  • Safar Fazli 3
1
2 ikiu
3
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this article is to answer whether the Iranian banking system can be promoted by combining capabilities of knowledge absorptive capacity and corporate foresight, innovation, decision making and organizational performance. In this article, we have reviewed knowledge absorptive capacity and corporate foresight and its components and dimensions have been investigated. The research is practical in terms of purpose and cross-sectional in time. Using library tools and fuzzy Delphi methods, data was collected from academic and industry experts (15 experts) and it was analyzed using Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) techniques and the Micmac software. In the quantitative part of this research, data was collected from the banking systems of Iran belonging to 30 banks (Commercial Government banks, Specialized Government banks, Interest-free and Non-Governmental Banks). This was obtained using questionnaires and financial analyses. The reliability of the measurement model which consisted of 93 samples was confirmed by way of descriptive inferential and statistical analyses and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM); this was done using SmartPLS software. The results suggest that performance can be enhanced by combining the capabilities of knowledge absorptive capacity and corporate foresight. Furthermore, the combination of these two capabilities results in four possible scenarios, these are: the Ka’ba of desires, the center of calmness, the revelation of magnificence and the wingless ascension, which have been outlined and analyzed in this study.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Knowledge Absorptive Capacity
  • Corporate Foresight
  • Organizational Performance
  • Innovation
  • Strategic Decision Making
  • Scenario

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