عوامل اثرگذار سیاسی، اقتصادی و هزینه‌بر فرار سرمایه در کشورهای منتخب نفتی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 ٭ مربی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

2 پژوهشگر پسادکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه تهران، تهران

3 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

4 دانشیار دانشکده اقتصاد، مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

چکیده

یکی از عوامل مهم توسعه اقتصادی، فراهم کردن سرمایه کافی جهت رشد و توسعه است که جوامع مختلف برای تأمین آن به ورود سرمایه‌های خارجی و جذب سرمایه‌های داخلی نیازمندند. این موضوع درحالی است که کشورهای در حال توسعه و توسعه‌نیافته با معضل فرار سرمایه مواجه‌اند، که رفع آن نیازمند بررسی‌های علمی و همه‌جانبه در جهت ارائه راه‌حل است. در این راستا، هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر فرار سرمایه در کشورهای منتخب نفتی (آنگولا، آذربایجان، برزیل، کلمبیا، مصر، اندونزی، ایران، قزاقستان، مکزیک، مالزی، نیجریه و تونس) طی سال‌های 1352 تا 1392 است که برای انجام آن،  اثر متغیرهای رشد ناخالص داخلی، نرخ ارز، ثبات سیاسی، آزادی مالی و درجه باز بودن اقتصاد بر فرار سرمایه، با استفاده از روش حداقل مربعات معمولی اصلاح‌شده، بررسی شد.نتایج بیانگر آن است که افزایش رشد ناخالص داخلی و نرخ ارز، اثر مثبت و افزایش ثبات سیاسی، آزادی مالی و درجه باز بودن اثر منفی بر فرار سرمایه داشته‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effective Political, Economic, and Cost Factors on Capital Flight in Selected Oil Countries

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Mahdi Zare Shahneh 1
  • Madjid Hatefi Madjumerd 2
  • Omolbanin Jalali 3
  • Zahra Nasrollahi 4
1 phd candidate
2 Ph.D in Economics, Department of Economics,University of Sistan and Baluchestan
3 Ph.D Candidate in Economics, Department of Economics, Yazd University
4 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Yazd University
چکیده [English]

An important factor in economic development is the provision of sufficient capital for growth and development; which the various societies require to enter foreign capital and attract domestic capital, to provide it. This is while the developing and underdeveloped countries are facing a capital flight, which eliminate it, requires scientific and immersive studies to provide a solution. In this regard, the main objective of this study was to investigate the factors affecting capital flight in selected oil’s counties (Angola, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Malaysia, Nigeria and Tunisia) during the years 1352 to 1392; That's for doing it, the effects of GDP growth, exchange rates, political stability, financial freedom and degree of openness of the economy, on capital flight were examined by usage of Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares method. Results indicate that GDP growth. Results indicate that GDP growth and exchange rate effect positively and increase in political stability, financial freedom and openness had a negative effect on capital flight.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Capital Flight
  • Political Stability
  • Financial Freedom
1. اسدزاده، احمد، نازیلا محرم جودی و الناز مهریاری (1394). «بررسی رابطه بین فرار سرمایه و سرمایه‌گذاری کل در کشورهای منتخب منطقه منا»، سیاست‌های مالی و اقتصادی، ش ۱۰.

2. افشاری، زهرا، احمد یزدان‌پناه و آزاده رحمتی‌زاده (1388). «رابطه بین سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی و فرار سرمایه (بررسی موردی کشورهای منتخب منطقه منا طی دوره 2006ـ1991)»، پول و اقتصاد، ش 2.

3. افضلی ابرقویی، وجیهه و نوشین خانی قریه گپی (1389). «علل و آثار فرار سرمایه در اقتصاد ایران»، روزنامه دنیای اقتصاد، ش 2094. http://donya-e-eqtesad.com/news/608758.

4. امامی، کریم و مهدی ادیب‌پور (1388). «بررسی اثرات نامتقارن شوک‌های نفتی بر تولید»، مدل‌سازی اقتصادی، ش 4.

5. تقی سلطانی، مهدی و جواد پورغفار دستجردی (1391). «فرایند جهانی شدن و تأثیر آن بر درآمدهای مالیاتی در ایران»، پژوهش‌ها و سیاست‌های اقتصادی، ش 62.

6. رشیدی، رامین (1387). «بررسی علل و عوامل مؤثر بر فرار سرمایه و آثار آن بر رشد اقتصادی کشور ۱۳۸۰-‎۱۳۵۲». پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه امام صادق (ع).

7. محنت‌فر، یوسف و تورج دهقانی (1388). «بررسی رشد نقدینگی و اثر آن بر تورم در اقتصاد ایران: یک مطالعه تجربی طی دوره 1385- 1350»، پژوهش‌ها و سیاست‌های اقتصادی، ش 49.

8. مشیری، سعید و ابراهیم التجائی (1394). «مطالعه تطبیقی روند بلندمدت تغییرات ساختاری در اقتصاد ایران در مقایسه با اقتصادهای تازه صنعتی شده»، اقتصاد تطبیقی، ش 1.

9. Ajayi, L. B. (2012). "Capital Flight and Nigeria Economic Growth", Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, No .2.

10. Ajayi, S. I. and L. Ndikumana (Eds.). (2014). Capital Flight from Africa: Causes, Effects and Policy Issues, OUP Oxford.

11. Ajilore, O. (2010). "An Economic Analysis of Capital Flight from Nigeria", International Journal of Economics and Finance, No. 2(4).

12. Alesina, A. and T. Guido (1989). "External Debt, Capital Flight and Political Risk", Journal of International Economics, No. 27(3-4).

13. Ali, A. and B. Walters (2011). "On the Causes of Capital Flight from Sub Saharan Africa", In Central for the Study of African Economies, 2011 Annual Conference.

14. Ayadi, F. S. (2008). "Econometric Analysis of Capital Flight in Developing Countries: A Study of Nigeria", In 8th Global Conference on Business & Economics, Florence, Italy.

15. Bakare, A. S. (2011). "The Determinants and Roles of Capital Flight in the Growth Process of Nigerian Economy: Vector Autoregressive Model Approach", British Journal of Management and Economics, No. 1(2).

16. Beja, E. L. (2008). "Estimating Trade Mis‐invoicing from China: 2000–2005", China & World Economy, No. 16(2).

17. Bhagwati, J. N. (1981). "Alternative Theories of Illegal Trade: Economic Consequences and Statistical Detection", Review of World Economics, No. 117(3).

18. Bhattacharya, R. (1999). "Capital Flight under Uncertainty about Domestic Taxation and Trade Liberalization", Journal of Development Economics, No. 59(2).

19. Bispham, F. D. (2005). "Panel Data Cointegration Regression  Estimator, A Cross Country Consumption Study", University of Hull.

20. Boyce, J. K. (1992). "The Revolving Door? External Debt and Capital Flight: A Philippine Case Study", World Development, No. 20(3).

21. Brada, J. C., A. M. Kutan and G. Vukšić. (2013). "Capital Flight in the Presence of Domestic Borrowing: Evidence from Eastern European Economies", World Development, No. 5.

22. Cerra, V., M. Rishi and S. C. Saxena (2008). "Robbing the Riches: Capital Flight, Institutions and Debt", The Journal of Development Studies, No. 44(8).

23. Chamon, M. and M. Garcia (2016). "Capital Controls in Brazil: Effective", Journal of International Money and Finance, No. 61.

24. Chang, K. P. and R. E. Cumby (1991). "Capital Flight in sub-Saharan African Countries. African External Finance in the 1990s", Washington DC, World Bank, No. 1186.

25. Cheung, Y., S. Steinkamp and F. Westermann. (2016). "China’s Capital Flight: Pre- and Post-Crisis Experiences", Journal of International Money and Finance, No. 58.

26. Chinn, M. D. (2013). "United States, China, and the Rebalancing Debate: Misalignment, Elasticities, and the Saving-Investment Balance", In the Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy, MIT Press.

27. Chinn, M. D. and H. Ito  (2008). "A New Measure of Financial Openness", Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis, No. 10.

28. Classense, S. and D. Naude (1993). "Resent Estimate of Capital Flight", World Bank Policy Research Paper, No. 1186.

29. Collier, P., A. Hoeffler and C. Pattillo (2001). "Flight Capital as a Portfolio Choice", World Bank Econ. Rev, No. 15 (1).

30. Cuddington, J. T. (1986). "Capital Flight: Estimates, Issues, and Explanations", Princeton Studies in International Finance, No. 58.

31. Cumby, R. E. and R. M. Levich (1987). "On the Definition and Magnitude of Recent Capital Flight", Washington DC, Institute for International Economics.

32. De Boyrie, M. (2005). "Money Laundering and Income Tax Evasion: The Determination of Optimal Audits and Inspections to Detect Abnormal Prices in International Trade", Journal of Financial Crime, No. 12.

33. Dell’Erba, S. and D. Reinhardt (2015). "FDI, Debt and Capital Controls", Journal of International Money and Finance, No. 58.

34. Deppler, M. and M. Williamson (1987). "Capital Flight: Concept, Measurement and Issues", In Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund,Washington.

35. Dong, Z., and Y. Zhang (2016). "Accumulated Social Capital, Institutional Quality, and Economic Performance: Evidence from China", Economic Systems, No. 40(2).

36. Dooley, M. P. (1988). "Capital Flight: A Response to Different Financial Risks", IMF Staff Papers, No. 35(3).

37. Edwards, S. (2007). "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals", In Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, University of Chicago Press.

38. Eggerstedt, H., R. B. Hall and S. Van-Wijnbergen (1995). "Measuring Capital Flight: a Case Study of Mexico", World Development, No. 23(2).

39. Enders, W. (2004). Applied Econometric Time Series, New York, Wiley Press.

40. Erbe, S. (1985). "The Flight of Capital from Developing Countries", Intereconomics, No. 4.

41. Forgha, N. (2008). "Capital Flight, Measurability and Economic Growth in Cameroun: An Economic Investigation", International Review of Business Research Papers, No. 4.

42. Gibson, H. D. and E. Tsakalotos (1993). "Testing a Flow Model of Capital Flight in Five European Countries", Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, No. 61.

43. Gordon, D. B. and R. Levine (1989). "The ‘Problem’of Capital Flight-a Cautionary Note", The World Economy, No. 2.

44. Gunter, F. R. (2004). "Capital Flight from China: 1984–2001", China Economic Review, 15(1).

45. Gusarova, V. (2009). "The Impact of Capital Flight on Economic Growth", Unpublished Master’s Thesis of the KYIV School of `Economics.

46. Harrigan, J., G. Mavrotas and Z. Yusop. (2007). "On the Determinants of Capital Flight: A New Approach", Journal of the Asian Pacific Economy, No.7(2).

47. Hermes, N. and R. Lensink (2001). "The Magnitude and Determinants of Capital Flight: The Case for Six Sub-Saharan African Countries", De Economist, 4.

48. http://www.worldbank.org.

49. Iamsiraroj, S. (2016). "The Foreign Direct Investment–Economic Growth Nexus", International Review of Economics and Finance, No. 42.

50. Jhigan, M. L. (2003). "Macroeconomic Theory", 11 Revised and Enlarged Edition, Delhi, VRINDA Publications (P) LTD.

51. Khan, M. S. and N. Ui Hague (1987). "Foreign Borrowing and Capital Flight: A Formal Analysis", Staff Papers, No. 32(4).

52. Kindle Berger, C. P. (1987). "Capital Flight a Historical Perspective" In Lessard and Williamson (eds) Capital Flight and Third World Debt Washington D.C. Institute for International Economics.

53. Kolapo, F. and O. Ojo (2012). "Nigerian Economic Growth and Capital Flight Determinants", Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences, No. 11.

54. Lensink, R., N. Hermes and V. Murinde (1998). "The Effect of Financial Liberalization on Capital Flight in African Economies", World Development, 26(7).

55. _____ (2000). "Capital Flight and Political Risk", J. int. Money Financ, No. 19(1).

56. Lessard, D. R. and J. Williamson (1987). Capital Flight and Third World Debt Washington, D.C., Institute for International Economics.

57. Maski, G. and S. Wahyudi (2012). "Study on the Capital Flight and Its Impact on Economic Growth: a Case Study in Indonesia", Journal of Basic and Applied Scientific Research, No. 2(7).

58. Mody, A. and A. P. Murshid (2005). "Growing up with Capital Flows", Journal of International Economics, No. 65.

59. Nachrowi, D. N. (2006), "Approach and Practice of Econometrics for Economic and Financial Analysis", Indonesia: Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia Publication.

60. Ndikumana, L. and J. K. Boyce (2002). "Public debts and private assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries", PERI Working Paper, 32.

61. Obidike, P., K. Uma, J. Odionye, H. Ogwuru (2015). "The Impact of Capital Flight on Economic Development: Nigeria in Focus", British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 10(3).

62. Pastor, M. (1990). "Capital Flight from Latin America", World Dev, No. 18 (1).

63. Paul, C., P. Obidike, K. Uma, J. Odionye and H. Ogwuru (2015). "The Impact of Capital Flight on Economic Development: Nigeria in Focus. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 10(3).

64. Pinheiro, I. (1997). Considerations about Exchange Controls, Capital Flight and Country Risk, The George Washington University, Fall, Washington, DC.

65. Quinn, D. P. (2003). "Capital Account Liberalization and Financial Globalization, 1890–1999: A Synoptic View", International Journal of Finance and Economics, No. 8.

66. Rose, M. (2002). "Reform der Einkommensbesteuerung in Deutschland: Konzept, Auswirkungen und Rechtsgrundlagen der Einfachsteuer des Heidelberger Steuerkreises", Verlag Recht und Wirtschaft.

67. Schneider, B. (2003). "Measuring Capital flight: Estimates and Interpretations", Working Paper 194, Overseas Development Institute.

68. Tornell, A. and A. Velasco. (1992). "The Tragedy of the Commons and Economic Growth: Why Does Capital Flow From Poor to Rich Countries?", Journal of Political Economy 100, No. 6.

69. Varman-Schneider, B. (1991). Capital Flight from Developing Countries, Westview Press, Boulder, CO.

70. Walter, I. (1987). The Mechanisms of Capital Flight, In D. R. Lessard and J. Williamson eds., Capital Flight and Third World Debt Washington, D.C., Institute of International Economics.

71. Wang, Y., L. Ning and M. Prevezer (2016). "Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers and the Geography of Innovation in Chinese Regions: The Role of Regional Industrial Specialization and Diversity", Regional Studies, No. 5.

72. www.csae.ox.ac.uk/conferences/2011-edia/papers/679-ali-pdf,(02.04. 2013).

73. Yalta, A. and A. Yalta (2012). "Does Financial Liberalization Decrease Capital flight? A Panel Causality Analysis", International Review of Economics and Finance, No. 22.

74. Zakaree S. and S. Ayodeji (2012). "Impact of Capital Flight on Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Nigeria", International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, No. 13.