مجلس و راهبرد

مجلس و راهبرد

چشم انداز جایگاه انرژی‌های پاک در افق 2035 اقتصاد سیاسی جمهوری اسلامی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شاهرود، ایران
2 استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شاهرود، ایران (نویسنده مسئول)
3 استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی و روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شاهرود، ایران
چکیده
The development of clean energy in the world has been relatively impressive in recent decades. The Islamic Republic of Iran has also been influenced by the global approach to clean energy and, to some extent, by environmental concerns and commitments and energy security, has made efforts in this field. This article aims to examine the position of clean energy in the political economy of Iran in the horizon of 2035, and with a futures research approach and scenario writing method and relying on written documents and sources, based on the theory of the "Rantier State", tries to answer the question: What will be the position of clean energy in the political economy structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the horizon of 2035? The research findings show that the huge potential capacities of clean energy in Iran have provided the basis for benefiting from these energies. However, the results have not been very significant. The rentier structure of the Iranian economy on the one hand, and the lack of investment and technology transfer due to sanctions, on the other, are among the most important reasons for this failure. Consumption above the global average and the country's large-scale reliance on fossil fuels, the cheapness and availability of these fuels, centralized government bureaucracy, the priority of fossil energies in policy making and planning, mainly influenced by rent, the continuation of sanctions, and the lack of investment and transfer of new technologies, along with the ignorance of national and local managers,confirm this probable scenario that by 2035, fossil energies will have a decisive role in the structure of Iran's energy political economy and the position of clean energy will not be significant.
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