The Positive Shock Effects of Exchange Rate on GDP

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Abstract

Relative prices determine resource allocation and economic decisions. Now by increasing trade and financial transactions,exchange rate plays an effective role in the decision-making of Economic Agents and affects macroeconomic variables. This paper studies the effects of Exchange rate depreciation on Iran’s macroeconomic variables during 1973-2008. We use Vector auto Regressive Modeland the Pesarn and Shin (1998) approach. The impulse response functions show Positive Exchange rate shocks reduce non oil GDP and increase the price with respect to equilibrium levels. High dependency of domestic products on intermediate and capital input enhance cost channel exchange rate at least in the short run.

اندرس، والتر (1386). اقتصادسنجی سری‌های زمانی با رویکرد کاربردی، ترجمه مهدی صادقی و سعید شوالپور، ج 2، دانشگاه امام صادق (ع)، تهران.
ایزدی، حمیدرضا و مریم ایزدی (1387). «اثر تغییرات نرخ ارز بر ارزش افزوده بخش صنعت با استفاده از مدل کوتانی»، مجله تحقیقات اقتصادی دانشگاه تهران، ش 85.
توکلی، اکبر و محسن سیاح (1389). «تأثیر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی کشور»، فصلنامه پول و اقتصاد، ش 4.
داده‌های سری زمانی بانک مرکزی سال‌های 1387-1352.
نجارزاده، رضا و دیگران (1388). «تأثیر رابطه مبادله و نرخ ارز واقعی بر کسری بخش تجارت خارجی اقتصاد ایران»، فصلنامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی، سال نهم، ش 2.
Berument, H. and M. Pasaogullari (2003). "Effects of the real Exchange Rate on output and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey, "The Developing Economies", Vol. 41.
Edwards, S. (1986). "Are Devaluation Contractionary?" Review of Economics and Statistics, 68.
Gylfason, T. and M. Schmid (1983). "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?", Canadian Journal of Economics.
Gylfason, T. and M. Radetzki (1991). "Does Devaluation Make Sense in Least Developed Countries"? Economic Development and Cultural Change, 40.
Hahn, E. (2007). "The Impact of Exchange Rate Shocks on Sectoral Activity and Prices in the Euro Area", European Central Bank Working Paper Series, No. 796, http://www.ecb.int.
Hau, H. and H. Rey (2006). "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices, and Capital Flows", Review of Financial Studies,‌19 (1).
Hsing, Y. (2006). "Responses of Output in Poland to Shocks to the Exchange Rate, the Stock Price, and Other Macroeconomic Variables: a VAR Model", Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 13.
Ibrahim, M. (2007). "Sectoral Effects of Ringgit Depreciation Shocks", Journal of Economic Development, Vol. 32, No. 2.
Kandil, M., H.,Berument and N. Dincer, N. (2007). "The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Economic Activity in Turkey", ‌Journal of Asian Economics,‌18 (3).
Kandil, M. and A. Mirzaei (2002). "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Disaggregated Economic Activity in the US: Theory and Evidence", Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 21.
Krugman, P. and L. Taylor (1978). "Contractionary Effect of Devaluation," Journal of International Economics, 8.
Pesaran, M.H. and Y. Shin (1998). "Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Economics Letters, 85.
Sims, C. (1980). "Macroeconomics and Reality", Econometrica, Vol. 48 (1).