Comparative Assessment of Economic Risk in Islamic Republic of Iran for 1380-1390 Period

Document Type : Research Paper

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Abstract

In the present world, on the one side the society industrialization and extension of international trade and financial transactions and on the other side, the importance of risk in the world out of theory and doctrine forces us to take steps to make these analyses of economic risk practical. Respecting the significance of these analyses for before and after exchanges, the present paper tries to assess the economic risk of Islamic Republic of Iran for 1380-1390 period by using the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) method, which contains coherence theoretical and practical bases. Since the size of these indexes and presented ratings can be a benchmark of attraction or repulse of international resources, especially it is a good criterion for attraction or divestment of international agent’s confidence, so these indexes’ verification can determine whether this institute has deviation in its analysis or not, due to lack of access to precise data or intentional bias. Results suggest that the composite economic risk (mixture of pure economic risk and financial risk) by using the internal organizations’ data in Iran is less than the forecasted one by ICRG. It can be the result of: 1- relative closeness of financial markets and not getting affected by these markets from international financial markets 2- the expectations of this institute compared to the size of financial and economical interactions of Iran. But the forecast of ICRG for pure economic risk in research period are bigger than calculated one.

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References

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