Future Studies of Arts Policy in Iran’s Governing Institutions for the 2040 Visions with a Cross-Impact Analysis

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student of Art Research, Faculty of Art, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Art, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

10.22034/mr.2023.15266.5462

Abstract

Future studies with deep thinking have a great contribution in reducing estimation errors in various fields and reducing strategic surprises of governing institutions in the future. In the field of art policymaking, uncertainties in a network of events, trends and variables create an environment full of complex feedback loops that challenge traditional planning methods based on definite predictions of decision-makers compared to what happens in reality.
In this article, an attempt is made to predict the impact of one event on another event by analyzing the mutual effects and to answer the central question that what the main driver forces and key uncertainties in the future research analysis of art policy in Iran's governing institutions in the horizon of 1420 H.Sh is. The current research is objective, practical and has been carried out in a quantitative manner. The necessary information has been collected in the library and field method and it has been analyzed with the method of Multi-Grounded theory based on meta-synthesis method and the use of mutual effects analysis in Mic Mac software by forming a 15 x 15 matrix. The results of this research, obtained from the analysis of the coordinates of 15 variables in the software, indicate that the main driver forces that have the highest influence on other variables; "artist activism", "surveillance and interventionism and slippage of value policy", "art education", "art and new technologies", and "art supported by the government", among which two cases are "artist activism" and "surveillance and interventionism"» Due to their high influence and effectiveness, uncertainty is key as an indicator of instability, it affects other components of the matrix. "Art education" is also a facilitator

Keywords

Majlis and Rahbord

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 31 August 2024

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